November 1991 Forecast -- Flux Range 131 - 230

by Roy, AD5Q - Houston, Texas

The fall DX season is in full swing on all bands. Propagation over daytime paths is excellent on both 10 and 15; 20 & 40 are good for nighttime paths, and there is some DX activity on 80 every night for those that need a new challenge. Solar fluxes are trending down, and this will effect some of the bands that are at the peak of their seasons.

We will likely have periods where the solar flux dips below 150. Though this is plenty high enough to keep 15 in fine shape, on 10 Meters it will narrow the windows over high latitude paths. In the morning, this would shorten the openings to Russia and Eastern Europe. After sunset, 10 would close too soon for an opening to remote S.E. Asia. As long as the ionosphere is not disrupted by geo-storms, 15 Meters will remain a good choice on days when 10 meter propagation is off due to lower solar numbers.

Lower fluxes would mean better signals on 40 and 80, but we will likely pay a price for this as we move into winter. We would not have enough solar activity to keep 20 open at night. Last year's fall 20 meter season was disappointing, and this year's should be very similar. Evening paths to Europe and Russia are reliable for most of the year, but moving into winter we can expect early band closings to effect our primary DX paths. The DX activity will move to 40 (especially CW) and 80 (especially SSB). Propagation on 40, and also on that WARC Band at 10 MHz, should be excellent.

The lower MUF's on 20 will not effect paths that traverse the southern hemisphere, and several months of great longpath are expected. At least 80 percent of long path activity from the states is on the morning path to the Middle East and Europe. The other end of that path occurs near our sunset. Tune carefully for Antarctic stations and for exotic longpath from S.E. Asia.

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