July 1991 Forecast -- Flux Range 159 - 251

by Roy, AD5Q - Houston, Texas

Our late spring DX season on 15 Meters has passed its peak, and was interrupted by some intense geo-storms. Conditions were very good between storms, but now it is July and summer MUFs are at their lowest. Day-path signals will usually be weaker than in June. The long haul paths on 15 in the spring and summer are combination day/night paths. For example, our best morning path leads to Asia (where it is evening), while signals across the day path (Europe) are mostly weak. True nighttime paths are open to lower latitudes, such as Africa.

Most DX activity will move to 20 due to the weaker propagation on 15. Early morning is still be best time to operate, with Asia, the Pacific, the Indian Ocean and southern Africa all open at once.

There are two important expeditions we need to mention here: Afghanistan and Burma. Paths to both countries are nearly over the pole - one to the east and the other west. On 15, these paths will be marginally open for many hours of the day. The YA will peak in late evening and the XZ in mid to late morning. Openings on 20 will be shorter, but the short path openings will be pipelines. The YA should be loud before and after our sunset, with possible long path to XZ at the same time. The best XZ opportunity is the first two hours after sunrise, coincident with long path propagation to YA! (These expeditions will probably not be active simultaneously.) Both plan to operate the 17 meter WARC band, and this could be a good place to catch them without a massive pileup. Forget 10 Meters.

The XZ may not be easy to work. Romeo's signals from YA and 1S (Spratly) were very elusive, as he missed the narrow windows into North America almost every day. If he brings someone along who understands propagation, Burma should be very workable.

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