June 1993 Forecast -- Flux Range 82 - 139

by Roy, AD5Q - Houston, Texas

Spring conditions haven't been too bad - considering the decline in solar activity. April was awful though, because there were geomagnetic disturbances during much of the month. The seasonal peak in 15 meter propagation is in May, and we have had many nice openings despite the lower flux levels. The band has remained open during the evening for both us and the DX, and this opened paths to remote parts of the world at unusual times. Paths to Asia have been opening beginning in late morning. Paths to Europe have remained open late into the afternoon. Conditions in late May (during the WPX CW contest) were especially good, since fluxes were around their monthly peak of 140.

Whereas the best month of the year for 15 Meters is May, the worst is July. June is a month of rapid deterioration. 10 Meters dropped out of the picture over a month ago, and now this summer phenomenon will begin to effect 15. There will still be openings to remote parts of the world on 15 Meters, but as the month progresses, signals will be weaker. With solar fluxes varying from the low 90's to 140, conditions will of course be better when the solar numbers are higher. By mid-July most daytime paths will be difficult regardless of the flux, and most DX activity will have moved to 20.

20 Meters is in great shape for nightpath work. Flux levels in the 90's aren't much of a problem in the summer, and are enough to keep the band open most (if not all) of the night. Night paths can be worked from areas where it is day for 3 or 4 hours before sunset and after sunrise. In mid-morning, look for openings to southern Asia via the north-northwest. In late afternoon, look for activity from the Middle-East and Africa. Most of the activity will be in the evening, however, as this will be prime time into Europe and Russia.

20 long path isn't much of a factor nowadays. The morning path around the south pole is not in season during the summer, even at the peak of the cycle. When this path is in season (fall thru spring), it will not be very reliable due to the lower fluxes. Summer is normally the peak season for the westerly path to Africa and the Indian Ocean, and at the peak of the spot cycle (and probably not this year) we get a northwest path to several rare island countries (ZS8, FT/X, FT/Z, FT/W, 3Y, VK0H, ZD9). In the afternoon, look for long path to the east to VK (during the opening to Africa).

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