11 Years of Monthly Propagation Reports

by Roy (aka "Quack") AD5Q - Houston, Texas

This monthly series of articles began in February 1988 and ran for exactly 11 years. It therefore chronicles DX conditions for one complete sunspot cycle. The emphasis of the series has been on the seasonal variations in DX openings at prevailing solar flux levels, and not on forecasting short term variations in solar statistics. We try to help you work the DX, especially over the more difficult paths. There is little in this series of articles that would be considered dated material. The forecasts can be used again in the next solar cycle, and the one after that. Simply select one from the past series based on the time of year and currently level of solar activity.

Starting Point: My Site Index.
January	April	July	October
February	May	August	November
March	June	September	December
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If you want, you can have the complete set of articles in a Zip file (free). Each article shows the solar flux range for the month reported.

Click Here to Download the Archive (Zip format)

You might want to take a look at current and recent solar conditions in graphic form. A glance at this chart will aid you in selecting the right forecast so you can factor in the seasonal effects on the bands and identify the important daily DX openings from my articles.

The forecasts on this page are written from the perspective of the author, and I live in Texas (North America). Most other propagation guru's also live in the US, but are primarily focused on events on the sun anyway. Since I focus on actual DX openings from my location, I often receive requests from those trying to interpret these forecasts for other locations and continents which I have never been to. The series reflects my own operating habits and actual experience, and the strengths and weaknesses of my own station. I would like to encourage others to pick up where I have left off. You could fill in where I was short on experience (SSB, WARC Bands, Low Bands), or knowledge (physics), or report on DX conditions from other continents. I would especially be interested in DX experience from other latitudes - closer to the pole, equitorial regions, or the southern hemisphere. I think a lot of DXers would find such a series interesting. It's up to YOU...

Now, here are the articles...

January Forecasts

January 1989 -- Flux Range 186 - 302
January 1990 -- Flux Range 166 - 259
January 1991 -- Flux Range 176 - 370
January 1992 -- Flux Range 152 - 302
January 1993 -- Flux Range 104 - 141
January 1994 -- Flux Range 90 - 148
January 1995 -- Flux Range 73 - 97
January 1996 -- Flux Range 69 - 86
January 1997 -- Flux Range 67 - 78
January 1998 -- Flux Range 74 - 108
January 1999 -- Flux Range 94 - 239

February Forecasts

February 1988 -- Flux Range 98 - 115
February 1989 -- Flux Range 167 - 277
February 1990 -- Flux Range 139 - 236
February 1991 -- Flux Range 174 - 320
February 1992 -- Flux Range 196 - 288
February 1993 -- Flux Range 116 - 188
February 1994 -- Flux Range 93 - 108
February 1995 -- Flux Range 81 - 95
February 1996 -- Flux Range 68 - 76
February 1997 -- Flux Range 69 - 81
February 1998 -- Flux Range 81 - 107

March Forecasts

March 1988 -- Flux Range 101 - 132
March 1989 -- Flux Range 156 - 267
March 1990 -- Flux Range 144 - 247
March 1991 -- Flux Range 194 - 277
March 1992 -- Flux Range 155 - 200
March 1993 -- Flux Range 115 - 167
March 1994 -- Flux Range 85 - 101
March 1995 -- Flux Range 76 - 95
March 1996 -- Flux Range 67 - 74
March 1997 -- Flux Range 69 - 77
March 1998 -- Flux Range 88 - 142

April Forecasts

April 1988 -- Flux Range 100 - 147
April 1989 -- Flux Range 174 - 209
April 1990 -- Flux Range 135 - 255
April 1991 -- Flux Range 136 - 268
April 1992 -- Flux Range 128 - 206
April 1993 -- Flux Range 88 - 143
April 1994 -- Flux Range 73 - 87
April 1995 -- Flux Range 67 - 92
April 1996 -- Flux Range 67 - 74
April 1997 -- Flux Range 68 - 81
April 1998 -- Flux Range 86 - 141

May Forecasts

May 1988 -- Flux Range 101 - 149
May 1989 -- Flux Range 169 - 208
May 1990 -- Flux Range 122 - 274
May 1991 -- Flux Range 148 - 249
May 1992 -- Flux Range 99 - 145
May 1993 -- Flux Range 91 - 140
May 1994 -- Flux Range 69 - 95
May 1995 -- Flux Range 66 - 95
May 1996 -- Flux Range 66 - 78
May 1997 -- Flux Range 70 - 85
May 1998 -- Flux Range 87 - 136

June Forecasts

June 1988 -- Flux Range 108 - 183
June 1989 -- Flux Range 186 - 324
June 1990 -- Flux Range 135 - 219
June 1991 -- Flux Range 161 - 251
June 1992 -- Flux Range 99 - 130
June 1993 -- Flux Range 82 - 139
June 1994 -- Flux Range 68 - 88
June 1995 -- Flux Range 70 - 86
June 1996 -- Flux Range 67 - 74
June 1997 -- Flux Range 68 - 78
June 1998 -- Flux Range 96 - 125

July Forecasts

July 1988 -- Flux Range 133 - 192
July 1989 -- Flux Range 165 - 197
July 1990 -- Flux Range 140 - 259
July 1991 -- Flux Range 159 - 251
July 1992 -- Flux Range 96 - 176
July 1993 -- Flux Range 83 - 111
July 1994 -- Flux Range 74 - 88
July 1995 -- Flux Range 68 - 81
July 1996 -- Flux Range 65 - 87
July 1997 -- Flux Range 67 - 82
July 1998 -- Flux Range 99 - 130

August Forecasts

August 1988 -- Flux Range 112 - 191
August 1989 -- Flux Range 156 - 275
August 1990 -- Flux Range 167 - 322
August 1991 -- Flux Range 139 - 290
August 1992 -- Flux Range 93 - 156
August 1993 -- Flux Range 88 - 108
August 1994 -- Flux Range 71 - 89
August 1995 -- Flux Range 70 - 82
August 1996 -- Flux Range 67 - 81
August 1997 -- Flux Range 70 - 97
August 1998 -- Flux Range 108 - 179

September Forecasts

September 1988 -- Flux Range 116 - 188
September 1989 -- Flux Range 156 - 307
September 1990 -- Flux Range 150 - 212
September 1991 -- Flux Range 164 - 201
September 1992 -- Flux Range 100 - 139
September 1993 -- Flux Range 78 - 121
September 1994 -- Flux Range 70 - 97
September 1995 -- Flux Range 68 - 76
September 1996 -- Flux Range 66 - 74
September 1997 -- Flux Range 85 - 119
September 1998 -- Flux Range 115 - 177

October Forecasts

October 1988 -- Flux Range 149 - 200
October 1989 -- Flux Range 174 - 239
October 1990 -- Flux Range 144 - 233
October 1991 -- Flux Range 154 - 273
October 1992 -- Flux Range 98 - 175
October 1993 -- Flux Range 87 - 127
October 1994 -- Flux Range 74 - 98
October 1995 -- Flux Range 70 - 92
October 1996 -- Flux Range 66 - 73
October 1997 -- Flux Range 78 - 91
October 1998 -- Flux Range 102 - 137

November Forecasts

November 1988 -- Flux Range 139 - 190
November 1989 -- Flux Range 211 - 276
November 1990 -- Flux Range 141 - 222
November 1991 -- Flux Range 131 - 230
November 1992 -- Flux Range 125 - 176
November 1993 -- Flux Range 89 - 104
November 1994 -- Flux Range 76 - 92
November 1995 -- Flux Range 71 - 78
November 1996 -- Flux Range 68 - 106
November 1997 -- Flux Range 86 - 121
November 1998 -- Flux Range 115 - 168

December Forecasts

December 1988 -- Flux Range 147 - 255
December 1989 -- Flux Range 167 - 284
December 1990 -- Flux Range 178 - 241
December 1991 -- Flux Range 171 - 272
December 1992 -- Flux Range 116 - 173
December 1993 -- Flux Range 84 - 143
December 1994 -- Flux Range 76 - 100
December 1995 -- Flux Range 69 - 76
December 1996 -- Flux Range 66 - 88
December 1997 -- Flux Range 78 - 117
December 1998 -- Flux Range 128 - 187

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